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Author Topic: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?  (Read 3631 times)

RandallS

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Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« on: July 10, 2012, 01:12:45 pm »
I new study (" Orbital forcing of tree-ring data ") published in Nature Climate Change challenges current assumptions about climate change over the last 2000 or so years. This appears to be "real science" -- unlike a lot of the "the climate isn't changing" crap you hear about. However, as all the tree ring data used was from one location on the planet (northern Scandinavia), there is an obvious need for more research -- and not just to confirm these specific findings.

Quote
Based on an analysis of maximum latewood density data from northern  Scandinavia, along with published dendrochronological records, this  study finds evidence that previous tree-ring-reliant reconstructions of  large-scale near-surface air temperature underestimated long-term  pre-industrial warmth during Medieval and Roman times.


Here's an article from The Register with more in layman's terms.
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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2012, 11:33:57 pm »
Quote from: RandallS;63559
I new study (" Orbital forcing of tree-ring data ") published in Nature Climate Change challenges current assumptions about climate change over the last 2000 or so years. This appears to be "real science" -- unlike a lot of the "the climate isn't changing" crap you hear about. However, as all the tree ring data used was from one location on the planet (northern Scandinavia), there is an obvious need for more research -- and not just to confirm these specific findings.



Here's an article from The Register with more in layman's terms.

 
Definately going t have to read the articles once I get home, and it doesn't take 25 minutes to load the TC search page.  

The conclusions are nothing new though. It's been obvious that early midieval temps were much higher. For example the butter-olive oil / beer-wine line was much further north.

RandallS

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2012, 08:09:58 am »
Quote from: sailor;63627
The conclusions are nothing new though. It's been obvious that early midieval temps were much higher. For example the butter-olive oil / beer-wine line was much further north.

The conclusions are a bit broader: This study calls into question the bit about current high temperatures being the highest in the last 2000-3000 years. According to this study, previous tree-ring temperature studies under-estimated temperatures.
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Wickerman

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2012, 10:16:15 am »
Quote from: RandallS;63559
I new study (" Orbital forcing of tree-ring data ") published in Nature Climate Change challenges current assumptions about climate change over the last 2000 or so years. This appears to be "real science" -- unlike a lot of the "the climate isn't changing" crap you hear about. However, as all the tree ring data used was from one location on the planet (northern Scandinavia), there is an obvious need for more research -- and not just to confirm these specific findings.



Here's an article from The Register with more in layman's terms.

 
The discussion of Climate change, or global warming is becoming a divisive one. Some deny it exists at all, some deny that man had anything to do with it, some believe that man is influencing it, and others believe that a large portion of humanity should be euthanized to stop it. It is a difficult study, because it is obvious that in the distant past there was far more CO2 in the atmosphere than there is now, the earth was far hotter. Then came an ice age, caused by an asteroid, (not a natural part of the weather) and the earth became much cooler, a cooling that we are only now fully recovering from. The fact that prior to the ice age there were no glaciers, and that those laid down during the ice age are melting might indicate that our weather is about back to normal. Well, I have put out a lot of different ideas. I'm still undecided myself, but this article look like a good one.
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cigfran

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2012, 12:08:02 pm »
Quote from: sailor;63627
For example the butter-olive oil / beer-wine line was much further north.

 
Can we get some references on this? It sounds very interesting.

Dragonoake

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2012, 12:53:58 am »
Quote from: Wickerman;63661
The fact that prior to the ice age there were no glaciers, and that those laid down during the ice age are melting might indicate that our weather is about back to normal.


So the question isn't so much about whther it is warmer than it was 100 year or a 1000 years ago, as it is about what, exactly, is normal?

MadZealot

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2012, 05:52:29 am »
Quote from: Dragonoake;65554
So the question isn't so much about whther it is warmer than it was 100 year or a 1000 years ago, as it is about what, exactly, is normal?


I think "normal" is hard to quantify given our limited perspective.  We've not been measuring/chronicling temps and weather patterns for very long, in the grand scheme of things.
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RandallS

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2012, 08:23:57 am »
Quote from: MadZealot;65583
I think "normal" is hard to quantify given our limited perspective.  We've not been measuring/chronicling temps and weather patterns for very long, in the grand scheme of things.

There is no meaningful "normal" temperature. There are really only averages as calculated across various periods of time.
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Wickerman

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2012, 07:37:19 pm »
Quote from: Dragonoake;65554
So the question isn't so much about whther it is warmer than it was 100 year or a 1000 years ago, as it is about what, exactly, is normal?

 
I am not really sure that I would say it was warmer now than 100 years ago. I am beginning to not trust the data that is being provided by those whose job it is to study such things. Some have been accused of skewing numbers and the like. I think that global climate is difficult to analyze because of the influence of none weather events, like volcano's and asteroids. If we looked back to the middle of the last ice age, then yes the earth is a lot warmer, but if we compared today's temperature to the average before the ice age, what would we get then. Like most statistics people can make them say anything that they want them to. A popular discussion 20 years ago was that you were more likely to pulled over if driving a red car. I don't remember the exact percentage. The statement is statistically true, based on police records. But it does not show a bias by police against red cars. If one looked at vehicle registration at the time, there was actually a higher percentage of red cars on the road.
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Rhyshadow

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2012, 05:31:40 am »
Quote from: RandallS;65618
There is no meaningful "normal" temperature. There are really only averages as calculated across various periods of time.

Also, during other inter-glacial periods (time between glacial episodes) the average planetary temperature was indeed higher than it currently is.

The graph linked below show's the interglacial periods stretching back 8 million years - current time is to the left

http://www-odp.tamu.edu/publications/167_SR/chap_10/c10_f5.htm

My viewpoints
Is global warming happening? - Yes
Are human's responsible? - maybe we're pushing it to happen a little faster, but not causing
Can we do something about it? - Maybe slow the pace of the increase, but not stop the overall trend
« Last Edit: July 24, 2012, 05:32:37 am by Rhyshadow »

Kasmira

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2012, 11:30:12 am »
Quote from: Rhyshadow;65772
Also, during other inter-glacial periods (time between glacial episodes) the average planetary temperature was indeed higher than it currently is.

No one with a with a good grasp of science has ever argued that our present temperature is particularly high when compared to the history of this planet. What has been argued, is that our present change in temperature is particularly rapid. There is a big difference.

Within a reasonable bracket, the earth can be extremely hot, extremely cold, or somewhere in between and some ecosystem of lifeforms is going to evolve to survive effectively in that niche. When the climate changes particularly rapidly, however, the mutation rate (and consequently rate of evolution) of most species can't keep up. The main exception being lifeforms with very short lifespans and/or high levels of genetic mutation per generation (insects, bacteria, that kind of thing).

From the perspective of the planet (if the planet can be said to have a perspective...) this isn't so bad. Life will go on, some complex lifeforms will survive by migrating with the changing climate, and new complex lifeforms will evolve over a time period which, as far as the earth is concerned, really isn't all that long.

From a human perspective, this puts us way far up sh** creek. Even ignoring any value we ascribe to living on a planet which contains a diversity of animals which are not directly serving us (and I think most humans do ascribe significant value to this), the damage to crops, livestock, and potable water availability has the potential to be catastrophic. Yes, humans adapt to our environment more by technology than genetic evolution and we can come up with new technologies fairly quickly. However, I severely doubt we would be able to do so quickly enough to save vast swathes of the human population if the current food shortage escalated overmuch. Likewise, the likelihood of wars over water has already come up as something to watch out for in many parts of the world. If the climate continues to change rapidly, this is a very real possibility.

Now, there is very real evidence that the current rate of climate change is significantly influenced by human behaviour - in particular, our CO2 emissions. It is possible to argue that the climate would be heating up now without our interference, however, it is very difficult to argue that the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are not making this process faster. To be honest, the evidence we have is fairly darn near to incontrovertible on this topic.

What's the expedient thing to do? Cut CO2 emissions! But also prepare for a warmer world: we really need to be working on making our agricultural systems efficient and sustainable with less water input, developing better water collection and purification systems so that people have access to drinking water, etc. We don't know that it's only CO2 emissions which are changing the climate and, even if we did, it's unlikely we could cut them significantly enough and fast enough to fully halt climate change. Our climate is changing and we need to be ready for that just as we need to try and stop our actions from making it change even more.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2012, 11:30:35 am by Kasmira »

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Rhyshadow

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2012, 05:02:28 pm »
Quote from: Kasmira;65816
No one with a with a good grasp of science has ever argued that our present temperature is particularly high when compared to the history of this planet. What has been argued, is that our present change in temperature is particularly rapid. There is a big difference.

You didn't look deep enough - my opinions were listed below

Quote
Are human's responsible? - maybe we're pushing it to happen a little faster, but not causing
Can we do something about it? - Maybe slow the pace of the increase, but not stop the overall trend

Yes, I think we ARE increasing the pace of the heat up, but all we can possibly do is slow the pace back down - in 20-30 years if we start really working at it NOW - the warm up may or may not happen at all - all up to the Earth itself and we won't know till it does or doesn't happen
« Last Edit: July 24, 2012, 05:02:51 pm by Rhyshadow »

Dragonoake

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2012, 10:47:57 pm »
Quote from: MadZealot;65583
I think "normal" is hard to quantify given our limited perspective.


I agree. A few thousand years could be thought of as yesterday in geological terms

Dragonoake

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2012, 10:55:43 pm »
Quote from: Wickerman;65723
I am beginning to not trust the data that is being provided by those whose job it is to study such things. Some have been accused of skewing numbers and the like.


And there is a certain motivation to do so, both from the perspective of political motivation and from the perspective of securing funding for further research.

On the other hand, let us never forget that a trial lawyer's job isn't to show what happened; but rather to convince the jury, through the careful representation of the available evidence and the opinion of sympathetic experts, that "this" conclusion is more believable than "that" one

Dragonoake

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Re: Climate was HOTTER in Roman and Medieval Times than Now?
« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2012, 11:12:36 pm »
Quote from: Rhyshadow;65772
The graph linked below show's the interglacial periods stretching back 8 million years - current time is to the left


One thing I'm noticing from this chart is that there seems to be a fairly regular (roughly 100k years) cycle of warming and cooling. Another is that we seem to be in a part of the cycle where an upswing seems fairly normal

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